Conditional Probability
How to find the conditional probability P(B|A): formula, 2 examples, and their solutions.
Formula
P(B|A) means
the probability of (A and B)
when A has already happened.
So
P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A).
[B|A] is read as
[B bar A] or [B given A].
Example
3/4 is the answer.
This means
if Sam overslept,
then the probability of
Sam getting late for school is
3/4 = 75%.
The probability of Sam oversleeping
is 4%.
Set A as
Sam is oversleeping.
Then P(A) = 0.04.
The probability of
Sam oversleeping and getting late for school
is 3%.
Set B as
Sam is getting late for school.
Then P(A and B) = 0.03.
Sam woke up and realized that he overslept (A).
This means
the event A has already happened.
In this case,
the probability of
Sam getting late for school (B)
is P(B|A).
So it says to find P(B|A).
P(A) = 0.04
P(A and B) = 0.03
Then
P(B|A) = 0.03/0.04.
0.03/0.04 = 3/4
So 3/4 is the answer.
This means
if Sam overslept,
then the probability of
Sam getting late for school is
3/4 = 75%.
Example
80% of students saw Mary.
Set A as
choosing a student who saw Mary.
Then P(A) = 0.8.
50% of students saw both Mary and John.
Set B as
choosing a student who saw John.
Then P(A and B) = 0.5.
If you choose a student who saw Mary, ...
This means
you already chose a student who saw Mary (A).
So the event A has already happened.
In this case,
the probability of
the chosen student also saw John (B)
is P(B|A).
So it says to find P(B|A).
P(A) = 0.8
P(A and B) = 0.5
Then
P(B|A) = 0.5/0.8.
0.5/0.8 = 5/8
So 5/8 is the answer.