Probability: Dependent Events
How to find the probability of dependent events: formula, 1 example, and its solution.
Formula
Independent events are the events
that do affect each other.
If A and B are dependent events,
then
P(A and B) = P(A)⋅P(B').
P(A): Probability of A happening
P(B'): Probability of B happening (affected by A)
If A is also affected by B,
then change P(A) to P(A').
Example
First, let's see the 1st pick.
There are 5, 4, and 3 marbles in the jar.
So n(S) = 5 + 4 + 3.
5 + 4 = 9
9 + 3 = 12
So n(S) = 12.
This means,
for the 1st pick,
there are 12 marbles.
There are 5 blue marbles.
So n(A) = 5.
n(S) = 12
So P(A) = 5/12.
Probability
Next, let's see the 2nd pick.
It says
a marble is randomly picked from the jar
and [not replaced].
So the 1st pick (A)
does affect the 2nd pick (B).
So A and B are dependent events.
So, instead of finding P(B) by
P(B) = P(A) = 5/12,
find the changed probability P(B').
There were 5 blue marbles.
And 1 blue marble is picked and not replaced.
Then there are, 5 - 1, 4 blue marbles.
So n(B') = 4.
There were 12 blue marbles. (n(S) = 12)
And 1 marble is picked and not replaced.
Then there are, 12 - 1, 11 marbles.
So n(S') = 11.
n(B') = 4
n(S') = 11
So P(B') = 4/11.
P(A) = 5/12
P(B') = 4/11
A and B are dependent events.
So
P(A and B) = [5/12]⋅[4/11].
Cancel the numerator 4
and reduce the denominator 12 to, 12/4, 3.
3⋅11 = 33
So 5/33 is the answer.